An expert system for ranking companies and investments: wood industry case

Wood industry is a very important part of both the Greek Rural and industrial sector. The discovery of the differentiation in the level of growth and in the quality of financial management between the Greek wood companies can provide very important aid in the design of an effective rural development policy. The evaluation and ranking of Greek wood companies based on actual financial data is a very complicated task and it requires expertise knowledge and skills. On the other hand a computer expert system can perform validation and evaluation in an efficient way and can substitute human experts. An expert system was designed and developed towards this direction. It uses multicriteria analysis for each one of the wood companies based on actual financial data and it applies fundamental principles of fuzzy logic in order to calculate the expected intervals of flows for the following years.

Internet functions in marketing: multicriteria ranking of agricultural SMEs websites in Greece

Δημοσιεύσεις μελών--ΣΔΟ--Τμήμα Λογιστικής, 2013The invasion of new technologies combined with the high cost for running shop force enterprises to search for new sales methods. Network applications and ICT (Information and Communication Technology) can help achieve e-commerce goals. In Greece, many enterprises in the agro-food and drink sectors are already present on the internet. This paper studies the adoption of e-commerce on websites that support e-commerce activities within the agro-food and drink sectors. Therefore, the paper aims to identify and evaluate their qualitative and quantitative content characteristics, rank them according to 6 content characteristics/criteria using the multicriteria method of PROMETHEE II and classify them in groups of similar adoption. The findings of this study reveal the rate of adoption of e-commerce in the sectors and can serve as a valuable model for the designers of websites that promote e-commerce activities within the wider areas of food and drinks

RESEARCH OF THE OCCUPATION'S REGIONAL SPECIFICATION AND THE REGIONAL RELATIONS BETWEEN DISTRICTS OF THE INDUSTRY AND THE SERVICES

THE LOCATION OF INDUSTRY AND SERVICES AND THE RESEARCH OF THE REGIONAL RELATIONS BETWEEN DISTRICTS OF THE INDUSTRY AND THE SERVICES IS NOW A SERIOUS AND TIMELY (OPPORTUNE) PLACE OF SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION. QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS THAT IS USED IN THIS RESEARCH FINDS OUT THE PROBLEM IN HIS REAL DIMENSIONS IN GREEK, PLANNING THE LOCAL APPEARANCE OF THE OCCUPATION IN INDUSTRY AND SERVICES. BESIDES, THE BORDER IN WHICH THIS LOCATION WAS FORMED IS EXAMINED HISTORICALLY. IN QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS TWO METHODS OF DATA ANALYSIS ARE USED: I) THE QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF CORRESPONDANCE AND II) THE CLASSIFICATION.Η ΧΩΡΟΘΕΤΗΣΗ ΤΗΣ ΒΙΟΜΗΧΑΝΙΑΣ ΚΑΙ ΤΩΝ ΥΠΗΡΕΣΙΩΝ ΚΑΙ Η ΑΝΑΖΗΤΗΣΗ ΤΩΝ ΧΩΡΙΚΩΝ ΣΧΕΣΕΩΝ ΜΕΤΑΞΥ ΤΩΝ ΤΟΜΕΩΝ ΤΗΣ ΒΙΟΜΗΧΑΝΙΑΣ ΚΑΙ ΤΩΝ ΥΠΗΡΕΣΙΩΝ ΑΠΟΤΕΛΕΙ ΣΗΜΕΡΑ, ΜΕ ΤΙΣΑΛΜΑΤΩΔΕΙΣ ΤΕΧΝΟΛΟΓΙΚΕΣ ΕΞΕΛΙΞΕΙΣ ΣΤΗΝ ΠΑΡΑΓΩΓΗ ΚΑΙ ΣΤΙΣ ΥΠΗΡΕΣΙΕΣ, ΕΝΑ ΠΕΔΙΟ ΕΠΙΣΤΗΜΟΝΙΚΗΣ ΕΡΕΥΝΑΣ ΠΟΛΥ ΣΟΒΑΡΟ ΟΣΟ ΚΑΙ ΕΠΙΚΑΙΡΟ ΔΙΕΘΝΩΣ. Η ΠΟΣΟΤΙΚΗ ΑΝΑΛΥΣΗ ΠΟΥ ΕΠΙΧΕΙΡΕΙΤΑΙ ΣΤΗΝ ΕΡΕΥΝΑ ΔΙΑΠΙΣΤΩΝΕΙ ΤΟ ΠΡΟΒΛΗΜΑ ΣΤΙΣ ΠΡΑΓΜΑΤΙΚΕΣ ΤΟΥ ΔΙΑΣΤΑΣΕΙΣ ΣΤΟΝ ΕΛΛΑΔΙΚΟ ΧΩΡΟ ΧΑΡΤΟΓΡΑΦΩΝΤΑΣ ΤΙΣ ΧΩΡΙΚΕΣ ΕΜΦΑΝΙΣΕΙΣ ΤΗΣ ΑΠΑΣΧΟΛΗΣΗΣ,ΤΙΣ ΤΑΣΕΙΣ ΣΥΓΚΕΝΤΡΩΣΗΣ ΤΗΣ ΚΑΙ ΤΙΣ ΧΩΡΙΚΕΣ ΣΧΕΣΕΙΣ ΜΕΤΑΞΥ ΤΗΣ ΒΙΟΜΗΧΑΝΙΚΗΣ ΑΠΑΣΧΟΛΗΣΗΣ ΚΑΙ ΤΗΣ ΑΠΑΣΧΟΛΗΣΗΣ ΣΤΙΣ ΥΠΗΡΕΣΙΕΣ ΚΑΤΑ ΝΟΜΟ ΚΑΙ ΠΕΡΙΦΕΡΕΙΑ. ΠΑΡΑΛΛΗΛΑ ΔΙΕΡΕΥΝΑΤΑΙ ΙΣΤΟΡΙΚΑ ΤΟ ΠΛΑΙΣΙΟ ΣΤΟ ΟΠΟΙΟ ΕΙΧΑΜΕ ΤΗΝ ΔΙΑΜΟΡΦΩΣΗ ΑΥΤΗΣ ΤΗΣ ΧΩΡΟΘΕΤΗΣΗΣ. ΣΤΗΝ ΠΟΣΟΤΙΚΗ ΑΝΑΛΥΣΗ ΓΙΝΕΤΑΙ ΧΡΗΣΗ ΔΥΟ ΜΕΘΟΔΩΝ ΑΝΑΛΥΣΗΣ ΔΕΔΟΜΕΝΩΝ: Ι) ΤΗΣ ΠΑΡΑΓΟΝΤΙΚΗΣ ΑΝΑΛΥΣΗΣ ΤΩΝ ΑΝΤΙΣΤΟΙΧΙΩΝ (AFC) ΚΑΙ ΙΙ) ΤΗΣ ΤΑΞΙΝΟΜΗΣΗΣ CLASSIFICATION-VACOR

Forecasting bank stock market prices with a hybrid method: the case of alpha bank / Vertybinių popierių kainų prognozavimas hibridiniu metodu: alpha bank pavyzdys

The present study aims at constructing Confidence Intervals (C.I) for the predicted values of a Time Series with the application of a Hybrid method. The presented methodology is complicated and thus is completed in different stages. Initially the Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) is applied on the raw time series in order to estimate C.I of the forecasts. Then, the Bootstrap method is employed on the residuals generated by the preceded process. On the upper and lower limit of the estimated C.I., two new ANNs are employed in order to make point estimations (of the upper and lower limits) using of Object Oriented Programming. For the empirical analysis daily observations of the closing prices of Alpha Bank stocks have been used. The sample period is extended from 28/01/2004 until 30/11/2005. The nonstationarity of the time series employed in our study is not a forbidding condition for the estimation of the confidence intervals, in our case, since the level of bootstrap still provides a satisfactory approximation for the roots arbitrarily close to unity (Berkowitz, Kilian 1996). The accuracy of the forecasts was surveyed with the use of different criteria and the results were satisfactory. Santrauka Šio tyrimo tikslas—nustatyti pasikliautinuosius intervalus (Confidence Intervals, C. I.) prognozuojamam periodui taikant hibridini metod (Hybrid). Pateikta metodika yra sudetinga, todel autoriai jos taikym suskirste i kelias fazes. Pradžioje buvo taikyti metodai, pagristi dirbtiniais neuroniniais tinklais, kuriu pritaikymas leido atlikti pasikliautinuju intervalu ribu prognozes. Veliau autoriai taike Bootstrap metod. Siekiant nustatyti viršutines ir apatines pasikliautinuju intervalu ribas, taikant dirbtiniu neuroniniu tinklu metod, buvo remtasi i objekt orientuotu programavimu. Empirinei analizei atlikti kasdien autoriai naudojo Alpha Bank pateikiamus duomenis. Analizuojamas laikotarpis apeme 2004–01-28–2005–11-30. Reikšminiai žodžiai: dirbtiniai neuroniniai tinklai, pasikliautinieji intervalai, Bootstraop metodas, programavimas, fondu birž

The fuelwood market in Greece: An empirical approach

Wood has been since ancient times the basic household heating medium. Nowadays, wood remains the primary energy source in rural areas of developing countries, mainly in Africa. In Greece, the domestic demand of fuelwood is relied mainly on the fuelwood domestic supply. Especially, during the post-war period the domestic supply satisfies adequately the domestic demand, eliminating the role of imports. The present study surveys the long-run relationship between the fuelwood prices of different forest species in order to determine the role of the special market conditions in their price formation. In addition, the error correction model is estimated in order to survey the direction of the Granger causality among the prices of the fuelwood forest species. The implementation of the impulse response analysis and the variance decomposition confirmed that coniferous and beech fuelwood producer price may account for the volatility of the oak fuelwood producer price. This result may contribute greatly to the conservation of oak forest, an important carbon storage forest ecosystem.Fuelwood prices Greece Econometric techniques Conservation Carbon storage

Predicting fuelwood prices in Greece with the use of ARIMA models, artificial neural networks and a hybrid ARIMA-ANN model

Throughout history, energy resources have acquired a strategic significance for the economic growth and social welfare of any country. The large-scale oil crisis of 1973 coupled with various environmental protection issues, have led many countries to look for new, alternative energy sources. Biomass and fuelwood in particular, constitutes a major renewable energy source (RES) that can make a significant contribution, as a substitute for oil. This paper initially provides a description of the contribution of renewable energy sources to the production of electricity, and also examines the role of forests in the production of fuelwood in Greece. Following this, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, artificial neural networks (ANN) and a hybrid model are used to predict the future selling prices of the fuelwood (from broadleaved and coniferous species) produced by Greek state forest farms. The use of the ARIMA-ANN hybrid model provided the optimum prediction results, thus enabling decision-makers to proceed with a more rational planning for the production and fuelwood market.Fuelwood Prices Model

Asymmetry in price transmission between the producer and the consumer prices in the wood sector and the role of imports: The case of Greece

The present paper studies the existence of asymmetry in the price transmission mechanism between the producer and the consumer prices in the sector of forest products. In particular, the research is focused [omicron]n the round wood of long length (> 2 m). For the study of the asymmetry, the Johansen cointegration analysis was used while at the same time two dynamic models were estimated: The Error Correction Model (ECM Model), and the LSE-Henry general to specific model (GETS model). With the assistance of the cointegration technique, we surveyed the existence of a long-run relationship between the producers and the consumers in the Greek round wood market, while the application of the Granger causality test has shown that the consumer price Granger causes the producer price whereas the reverse is not valid. Furthermore, the application of the GETS model confirmed the existence of asymmetry in the price transmission mechanism within the round wood market. Finally, the role of imports in the determination of the producer prices is vital and is confirmed by the findings of the cointegration technique and the Granger causality test.Cointegration analysis GETS model ECM model Wood market Price transmission

Evaluation and Forecasting of the Financial Performance of the Unions of Rural Cooperatives by a Decision Support System

The evaluation and forecasting of the performance of the Unions of Rural Cooperatives (URC) can be performed through the use of various types of financial ratios, such as ratios of efficiency, reliability and management. A computer decision support system (DSS) was designed and implemented for this purpose. The system evaluates and ranks the URC by applying principles of multicriteria analysis. Assigning various weights to the financial ratios enacts different scenarios. Actually each scenario calls for a different type of evaluation. The types of evaluation are determined by a variety of performance indicators. Actual financial data concerning the URC of north Greece for the last ten years was used as input to the DSS. The DSS applies fuzzy logic in order to forecast the future performance of each URC. The application of the system with original financial URC data and the use of a fuzzy forecasting method constitute the original contribution of the paper. The paper can be used in any country of the world without any revisions

AN EXPERT SYSTEM FOR RANKING COMPANIES AND INVESTMENTS: WOOD INDUSTRY CASE *

Greek Rural and industrial sector. The discovery of the differentiation in the level of growth and in the quality of financial management between the Greek wood companies can provide very important aid in the design of an effective rural development policy. The evaluation and ranking of Greek wood companies based on actual financial data is a very complicated task and it requires expertise knowledge and skills. On the other hand a computer expert system can perform validation and evaluation in an efficient way and can substitute human experts. An expert system was designed and developed towards this direction. It uses multicriteria analysis for each one of the wood companies based on actual financial data and it applies fundamental principles of fuzzy logic in order to calculate the expected intervals of flows for the following years